List price, price paid, market price: across 1,218 LEGO sets since 2020, the market pays a median 17% less than LEGO
When we talk about a LEGO set's price, we think of the list price shown on the Shop. Yet it's the figure least likely to match what you paid, or what the set is worth today. Three prices, three different questions, and a frequent calculation error in collection spreadsheets.
By Cault · How we measure prices
Sets measured
1 218
Median gap
−17,0 %
Under LEGO price
72,2 %
Above
25,2 %
One set, three prices
- The list price: set by LEGO. It's a reference, not a price paid.
- The price paid: what you actually spent, discount, points, shipping or shortage included.
- The market price: what others pay today for the same set, on the market.
Below list price: discounts, with their conditions
The week of September 21, 2026, Hoth Bricks listed two typical offers. At Fnac, up to 40% off a LEGO selection, reserved for Fnac+ members (€14.99 for three years), "at best until September 24". At Alternate, 15% off a selection with the code CYBERWEEK, but €9.90 shipping from the first set. In both cases, the real price paid isn't the crossed-out price minus the discount: the membership and shipping are part of it.
What the market says: 1,218 sets since 2020
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Sets measured (at least 5 new sales) | 1 218 |
| Median gap average sale / LEGO price | −17,0 % |
| Half of sets between | −30,1 % et +1,2 % |
| Under LEGO price (more than 1% below) | 72,2 % |
| At LEGO price (± 1%) | 2,6 % |
| Above LEGO price | 25,2 % |
On BrickLink's European market, the average sale of a new set released since 2020 sits at a median 17% below its LEGO price. Almost nobody resells "at list price": only 2.6% of sets sell within 1% of it. LEGO's list price is a reference point, and the market moves away from it both ways.
One set in four sells above its LEGO price. Shortages, already retired sets, limited editions: paying more than list price isn't a mistake, it's a price paid like any other. That's precisely why you should record it.
Why your ROI must start from the price paid
ROI is what you gained or lost compared with what you spent. If you compute it from the list price, you're wrong as soon as you paid something else: too optimistic if you paid more, too pessimistic if you got a discount. On a collection of dozens of sets bought at different times, the gaps add up.
How we measured
- LEGO sets released since 2020 (Cault catalogue retail price, reliable over this period) with at least 5 new sales on BrickLink Europe. Readings from June to September 2026, in euros.
- These are sales between collectors, not prices paid by Cault members. The median isn't a discount you can get: it's an observation on past sales.
My take
The list price is the most visible figure and the least useful for tracking a collection. What I take from these 1,218 sets is that it almost never exists as such in real life: neither in what you pay, nor in what the market pays. The one piece of data nobody else can give you is your price paid. Write it down to the cent, fees included. Everything else follows.
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between list price, price paid and market value?
The list price is set by LEGO. The price paid is what you actually spent, including discounts, memberships and shipping. The market value is what others pay today for the same set.
Do LEGO sets resell at their list price?
Rarely: of 1,218 sets released since 2020, only 2.6% sell within ±1% of the LEGO price. The median is 17% below, and one set in four sells above.
Why calculate ROI from the price paid?
Because the list price skews the result as soon as you paid a different amount: ROI looks too optimistic if you paid more, too pessimistic if you got a discount.
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Cault
Your ROI is only right if your purchase price is
Cault starts from your real price paid and compares it with the market price, set by set.