LEGO launch price: the Poké Ball at −24.6% within 48 hours, and what the market pays by release year
On October 1, 2026, the 72154 Poké Ball arrived on the LEGO Shop at €259.99. On October 3, Amazon.de listed it at €196.08. On October 4, three Avengers: Doomsday boxes came out… already discounted 20 to 25% at a retailer. This isn't this week's anomaly. It's how list price works, and the Cault database lets us measure it across 1,830 sets.
By Cault · How we measure prices
Poké Ball, list price
259,99 €
Amazon.de, Oct 3
196,08 €
2026 sets, median
−27,5 %
Sets measured
1 830
48 hours, a quarter of the price
The reading comes from Stonewars, which publishes the best LEGO prices on Amazon.de every week. On October 3, the Poké Ball was listed at €196.08, 24.6% under its €259.99. A detail that matters: the best price found elsewhere the same day was €196.03. Amazon wasn't alone; the whole German market had already shifted.
Same scene on October 4 with the Avengers: Doomsday sets (76347 Quinjet at €59.99, 76348 at €99.99, 76352 New Avengers Tower at €109.99). Hoth Bricks reports three Alternate prices on release day: −22%, −25% and −20%. The source doesn't say which price matches which box, so we don't pair them.
What the market pays, by release year
| Release year | Sets measured | Median vs LEGO price | Middle 50% between |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 97 | −27,5 % | −32,5 % et −17,5 % |
| 2025 | 150 | −28,7 % | −38,5 % et −17,5 % |
| 2024 | 201 | −24,0 % | −32,9 % et −8,7 % |
| 2023 | 216 | −16,7 % | −28,6 % et −3,8 % |
| 2022 | 209 | −11,2 % | −25,8 % et +4,7 % |
| 2021 | 208 | −3,7 % | −22,4 % et +13,4 % |
| 2020 | 159 | +7,8 % | −12,4 % et +43,1 % |
For sets released since 2024, the average new sale on BrickLink Europe sits at a median of a quarter under the LEGO price. Over 8 in 10 sets from those three years sell under list price. Then the gap narrows: −16.7% for 2023, −3.7% for 2021, and the median goes above list price for 2020.
Careful reading: these aren't the same sets from one row to the next. 2020 sets still selling today are, by definition, those that still have a market. A 2026 set won't "become" a 2020 set. This table is a snapshot of today's market, not a trajectory or a forecast.
Why list price is a ceiling
On release day, the LEGO price is the highest price most boxes will see on shelves. Retailers (Amazon, Alternate, big-box stores) set their own prices as soon as they have stock, almost always downward. The second-hand market aligns with what's available new at the same moment. As long as a set is on sale everywhere, there's no reason for it to resell above list price.
How we measured
- Price: latest BrickLink reading, European market, in euros, stored in the Cault database. Average new sale over 6 months. Readings from June 24 to October 4, 2026.
- Threshold: at least 5 new sales for a set to count. 1,830 sets pass it for 2020-2026.
- LEGO price: list price from the Cault catalogue, only for sets released since 2020. A spot check of 20 sets found one discrepancy (a dollar price instead of euros), which doesn't change the medians.
- Day prices: Stonewars (Amazon.de, October 3, 2026) and Hoth Bricks (LEGO Shop, October 1 and 4, 2026). German market for Amazon.de.
My take
I won't tell you to wait before buying: some sets go fast, and the joy of opening a box on release day can't be measured in percent. But you should know what you're paying. On day one, you pay the highest price of the set's commercial life, and that's not an opinion: it's what 448 sets released since 2024 show. If you track your collection as an asset, it's the price paid you should record, not the list price.
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Cault
The listed price isn't your price.
Cault keeps your price paid and sets it against the European market price, refreshed automatically.