LEGO Winter Village: 12 years under €99.99, and what the market actually paid

Twelve years, a ceiling — then a step

The series' list price reads in one glance: from €69.99 (2014) to €99.99 (2013, 2018, 2021 to 2024). Twelve vintages, 2013 to 2024, never above €99.99. It wasn't a frozen price — it moved within a €30 range — it was a ceiling that held.

Sources: Hoth Bricks (September 15, 2026) for 2013-2025, the 11387 listing for 2026. In 2025 the price jumps 20.0% at once; in 2026 it comes back down 8.3% without returning under the historical ceiling (+10.0%). A step, not a slope: with two data points you can't say LEGO is "raising its prices".

What the market paid

For each set, we took the average sale of a new copy on the European market (BrickLink Europe, in euros) and compared it to the list price. Only vintages with at least 5 new sales are kept: below that, the average says nothing.

Two blocks emerge. The two oldest sell far above their price: +137.9% for the 2013 Market, +72.5% for the 2016 Holiday Train. The next seven, 2018 to 2024, hover around the LEGO price: median +8.6%, with a low of −8.5% (Santa's Visit, 30 sales — the most solid of the series) and a high of +25.9%.

What we don't publish

Four of thirteen vintages don't reach 5 new sales: the 10245 (2014, 4 sales), 10249 (2015, 2), 10259 (2017, 3) and 10361 (2025, 3). Their apparent gap is spectacular for the oldest — and worthless, precisely because it rests on three or four sales. Same rule for the discount of an opened set against a new one: no line has both 5 new sales and 5 used sales.

How we measured

• Completed new-condition sales, BrickLink Europe, prices in euros, readings from August 12 to September 12, 2026 (prices are cached: the date matters).
• List price: Hoth Bricks' public prices. Our internal catalog's retail price differs from the public price for several older sets (the 10254 shows €89.99 instead of €94.99): we didn't use it.
• No projection: these are past sales between collectors.

My take

What the figures allow: recent Winter Villages sell around their LEGO price, and the two oldest carry a premium. What they don't allow: saying the 11387 will follow either path. It isn't out, it has no sales, and "it'll do like the old ones" would be a forecast dressed up as history. What interests me is the gap between two readings of the same object: the list price tells a pricing policy, the price paid tells a demand. Cault exists to put them on the same line.